The ECB is leaning towards an initial rate hike already on 21 July, bringing forward to early July the termination of net purchases under the APP. Policy rates will turn positive again by the end of the year, as long as the economy does not implode for some reason. Any potential signals of financial “fragmentation”, on the […]

FOMC meeting: acceleration in the pace of monetary stimulus removal, but the Fed is still hoping in an “almost soft” landing. The Fed hiked rates by 50bps and announced its balance sheet reduction plan, which will be implemented starting at the beginning of June. The Committee envisages 50bps hikes at the next couple of meetings as well, but […]

The round of March confidence surveys in the Eurozone displayed the initial effects of the international geopolitical crisis, especially on consumers and industrial firms; the impact on the European cycle may last well beyond a few weeks. In the meantime, inflation hit a new high in March since the records began, at 7.5%. On this front, national Governments have intervened […]

The European Central Bank accelerated the progress on the path of policy normalization, despite the uncertainty caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Initial assessments of the economic impact of the latter appear very mild, at least in the baseline forecasting scenario, although the balance of risks is clearly tilted to the downside for growth. The ECB is keeping […]