The ECB defends its forecast scenario, reiterating its expectations that inflation will fall in 2022. The verbal reaction against rate hike expectations has not been emphasised – and it is hard to expect more as long as financing conditions are not compromised. No anticipation was provided on the direction monetary policy will take in December – except for confirmation […]

An ECB policy rate hike by the end of 2022, as the markets are starting to price in, does not seem compatible with the expected trend of inflation next year and with the new monetary policystrategy approach. Click the link below for the complete weekly economic report [15 October 2021] powered by Intesa Sanpaolohttps://lnkd.in/gUytP4Qu

Euro area – Inflation forecasts revised up. Inflation in the euro area accelerated rapidly over the past few months, to 3.4% y/y in September. While we stick to our view that the rise of inflation will prove transitory, we now fear that it will not be short-lived. Based on our forecasts, the headline index should average 2.3% in […]

Italy – The Government approved the much awaited Update to the Economic and Financial Document (NADEF), which on the one hand confirmed the net improvement of the public finance framework (2021 deficit revised to 9.4% from 11.8%, debt now seen to decrease this year to 153.5%), on the other hand it highlights that, also thanks to […]

The FOMC meeting of 21-22 September will mark a watershed for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. The Committee should officially open the discussion on reducing asset purchases, albeit without providing details on the operational technicalities and timeline of the tapering. We believe the reversal on the purchase programme will be announced in detail in November and begin in […]

On 9 September the ECB is expected to announce a new upward revision of its growth estimates for this year, a widespread review of inflation projections and, in all likeliness, a slowing of the pace of PEPP purchases. In the euro area, the focus will be on the ECB’s monetary policy meeting whereas only a few monthly indicators are scheduled for […]